Western leaders are trying to negotiate a political solution to the war in Ukraine, but Mariupol, which stands between Russia and Crimea, has to be ready for the worst.
WNU Editor: If recent reports from Ukraine are true .... Russian-backed rebels massing to attack key Ukrainian towns: Kiev (Reuters) .... and if this weeks Ukraine peace talks do fail .... the next major battle will be for the town of Debaltseve .... City of Debaltseve emerges as a tipping point in Ukraine’s war (Financial Times). Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are trapped in this pocket, and their defeat will be a loss that will make it very difficult for Ukraine to continue the fight in either Luhansk or Donetsk.
After such a defeat is when I think the conflict will then shift to the strategic city of Mariupol .... and that could become the defining battle in this war. But as Anna Nemtsova's above report reveals .... many in Mariupol feel that Kiev has already abandoned them .... and with pro-Russian sentiment being very strong in the city .... According to recent polls, about 30 percent of Mariupol’s population has pro-Russian separatist sympathies, and 60 percent more are essentially undecided .... the fall of Mariupol may occur far more quicker than many may expect.
Personally .... I hope and pray that an agreement will be reached in Minsk this Wednesday. Unfortunately .... the facts on the ground and the sentiment in the capitals of Kiev and Moscow appear to indicate that the opposite will be happening.On the ground .... rebel commanders and rebel leaders now feel that their goal of a military victory is in their grasp ....and they want to continue the offensive to capture most if not all of Luhansk and Donetsk. In Kiev .... there is a still a determination to hold out for a military option and to avoid making the necessary political compromises .... that the West led by the U.S. will come to their rescue .... and that they will get the needed military support to eventually defeat the pro-Russian rebels. But I do not see that happening ... certainly not in the short term. In Moscow .... I sense there is a growing frustration with the Ukraine conflict. Putin wants it to end .... and end soon .... whether through diplomacy or through military force. As to what is my own prediction and analysis ..... for the moment everything is now on hold, but everyone is also now positioning themselves to fight at the next level in this conflict. And while the focus is on the Minsk peace talks .... the real activity is on the ground with both sides preparing for a new military offensive.
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